Saturday 17 May 2014

Analysts picking Heat over Pacers in East finals

All season, the Pacers fought for what they now have. Finishing with the best record in the Eastern Conference and home-court advantage in a potential rematch with Miami in the finals was Indiana’s paramount goal.

Now, it seems like no one cares.

“Miami is doing backflips,” ESPN analyst Bill Simmons wrote about the matchup, noting Indiana’s inconsistent play and the Heat’s relatively smooth path to this series.

“First two rounds couldn't have worked out any better,” Simmons wrote. “I still like Miami in this series, as long as they are healthy; they have LeBron James.”

The general reaction elsewhere has been similar. Many expert projections ahead of Sunday afternoon’s Game 1 give the Heat a firm advantage.

Fellow ESPN analyst P.J. Carlesimo said the mood swings in Indiana’s play in the postseason have been “night and day” and that the Pacers have “just gone south.”

CBS Sports’ Zach Harper picked the Heat in six games and predicted that at least two Pacers losses would come in “embarrassing” fashion, presumably an allusion to the ugly defeat they took from Washington at home in Game 5 of their last series.

“They have been so good over the last two years at home,” Turner Sports analyst Steve Smith said Friday. “People were scratching their head at basically being blown out at home in playoff games.”

But is there a danger in shortening the odds so dramatically for Miami?

“This is a fine team,” ESPN’s Jeff Van Gundy told the Indianapolis Star on Friday. “I think anybody who’s thinking that (the Pacers can’t win the series) is making a mistake.”

Van Gundy, who will work the series as a courtside analyst for ESPN, admitted he would pick the Heat as favorites. James, he said, is too talented to bet against.

But he pointed out several keys for the Pacers as well, including consistency from the starting lineup, big performances from Paul George and David West, and more impact from the Indiana bench.

“They need those guys to give them a boost of offense,” Van Gundy said of the Pacers’ reserves. “C.J. Watson could be effective in this series.”

Van Gundy said the biggest weakness he sees in Indiana is its lack of offensive firepower, compared to the league’s other three semifinalists.

Miami has James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Oklahoma City’s 1-2 punch of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook is perhaps the best in the league. And San Antonio’s veteran core has sustained high-level success for several years.

Defense has been the foundation of Indiana’s success this season, and the Washington series was no different. The only two games in which either team eclipsed 95 points were the Wizards’ two wins.

Regaining consistency from players such as center Roy Hibbert — whose own up-and-down performance has often mirrored that of his team — will be crucial in the conference finals.

“Everybody’s waiting to see what type of team shows up,” Smith said.

Van Gundy was careful not to invest too much emphasis in home-court advantage, saying he believed it would matter most only in a potential Game 7.

But he was most wary of writing off Indiana’s chances entirely, recent inconsistencies and all.

“Everybody wants to concentrate on the ups and downs of their playoffs, and since the All-Star break, but there’s four teams left, and they’re one of them, for the second straight year,” Van Gundy said. “Will it be a challenge? Absolutely. Can it be done? Most definitely.”


post originated from http://www.jconline.com







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